re: Ann: BC Iron Recommends Cash Offer from R... The closing...

re: Ann: BC Iron Recommends Cash Offer from R... The closing price is not always the best gauge for the takeover premium as one day's trade is easier for the big boys to manipulate and therefore may not be representative of recent market value.

The 30 day VWAP is a better indicator of market value. BCI's is $2.79, giving an 18% takeover premium at $3.30. Rule of thumb is for a takeover premium of 35% to 40%. A 40% premium to the one month VWAP for BCI gives $3.91 or a fully diluted market value of ~$409m.

18% above 30 day VWAP is IMO quite low. AGO for example has offered GIR a 53.5% premium to its 30 day VWAP under its recommended takeover offer. That sort of premium is almost a knockout blow for any other potential suitors and hard to resist for GIR shareholders.

Perhaps the Board is aware of other interest and has accepted the lower bid to flush out another predator?

Interesting to note that a $409m script bid from FMG would only require an additional 63m FMG shares to be issued, a drop in the ocean compared to their 3.1b on issue.

BTW, I don't hold BCI, just an interested onlooker. Good luck to holders, hope another suitor emerges.