IMO there was a bit of an overreaction but completely...

IMO there was a bit of an overreaction but completely understandable as oil shares attract a lot of short term trading.
Indeed it is going to be very tight for FY22 and still subject to a lot of condition precedents.
Production is going down 18% vs FY21 at 21Mmboe mid point guidance and capex going up from 671M to 1B$ mid point guidance so all of a sudden assuming you have 65$ avg barrel you are going to have 150$M less revenue from the top and 300M$ more capex.
However there is a bright light at the end of FY21, if we assume Otway and Watsia full on for FY23 we could have ~30Mmboe production, and assuming they negotiate good LNG prices, which should be the case as they disclosed 12 interested parties, revenues in FY23 could jump to 2,4B and capex would go down as you finish off the Otway, Moomba CCUS and watsia...so we are having a compression in FY21 from both sides top line /bottom line and literally an expansion in FY23 sales up and costs down...significantly. However this is just IMHO