Whilst this isn't the most exciting announcement given the macro backdrop, there is clearly a bumper half year ahead of us, which has all but been locked in.
Inputs - taken from company reports where applicable. Oz produced each month = 2300
Cash Cost p/oz (inc royals) = $1120 (this is company average YTD, recent activity to reduce costs likely to be offset in short-term by increased consumables)
Sustaining Cost p/oz = -$24
Hedge price @ 1500oz month = $2700
Spot price = $2750 (don't care what your forecast is this is my model)
Profit (EBITDA)
March quarter = $10,311,600
June quarter = $11,187,600 (+8.5% QoQ)
September quarter = $11,262,600 (+0.7% QoQ)
Cash Estimate end of September
Cash on hand @december quarter = $17,780,000
Exercised options expiring August 2022, 199,851,271 shares @ $0.025 = $4,996,281
EBITDA Jan-Sep = $32,761,800
March dividend = 3,971,116,263 shares @ $0.003 = -$11,913,348 (higher estimate gives buffer for conversions)
Tax @30% = $10,000,000 (rough estimate)
Estimated cash on hand Sep 2022 = $33,624,733What sort of dividend can we expect in September whilst still retaining large amounts of cash for acquisitions?
Estimated missed profit due to $2700oz hedge where spot price averages $2900oz between March and August = $1,800,000I hold nothing against our directors taking a bit of certainty with the state of the world. Try keep it real, guys and girls. The company is in great shape.
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