Yes I might do that for illustrative purposes - struggling for time lately though. My personal preference is to have a margin of safety in my forecasts as it’s my own capital and I’m not pitching for flow or orders from clients.
Either way, my conservative valuation was well over $1. I have run some different scenarios and the forecast goes over $2 or $3 from memory!
One great thing about BCC from an investment perspective is the visibility. We know how many units THEY WILL sell in the future which provides a baseline. We know the ARPU on those units and we can work out the GP margin thanks to Iridium being public.
So from a forecasting perspective we just need to have a view on costs and some of the other products they sell and we can be pretty sure that EPS estimates will be fairly accurate. What I did mention in my original note is there could be some timing differences of a quarter here or there but that’s not meaningful from a valuation perspective. This will be spitting out cash!!
Im very confident holders will be rewarded and I’m sure new holders will come to the valuation thread in a year or so and see all of us picking up bucketloads of shares in the 20s!!!! Even the 30s will still be a gift. Bring on the 4C for more data points.
BCC Price at posting:
33.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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