I use the order numbers as a way of predicting the more meaningful measure of "Units Shipped and Invoiced" (US&I). I think we now have proof that Beam & Zoleo Inc expect the US&I rate to increase from an average of around 10,000 per quarter for the first 3 Quarters of CY21, to around 25,000 per quarter for the first 3 Quarters of CY22 (a 150% increase in just one year). My evidence for this is:
- This latest order announcement expects the bulk of orders to be shipped & invoiced within 3 Quarters after the end of the Quarter in which the orders were announced, with some extending into 4 and 5 quarters. Orders during 2021 had an earlier US&I timeframe of 3 Quarters or better.
- Therefore, the 77,000 units ordered prior to 31 Dec 2021 but not yet shipped & invoiced, should be delivered by the end of the 3rd Quarter of CY22. That means an average of > 25,000 US&I over the these 3 Quarters.
- Investors should note that this means we are at an annualised rate of 100,000 US&I over this same period (which we are already into).
If we assume it takes an average of 3 Quarters after shipping for the units to be sold and commenced on plans (I may be overly conservative here), then this 100,000 rate should apply to units going onto plans by the last 3 Quarters of FY23 (Oct 22 to Jun 23). This should make the JV finances very healthy indeed. For those trying to predict what the Beam royalty payments are likely to be in that period, I am assuming around 5-6% of these units will be used in ANZ.
I am looking forward to investors starting to act on this developing success story.
One further comment: I think Beam does deserve a reasonable profit on sales of units to the JV, given that Beam is taking the cost and risk of having to finance, manufacture and hold very large inventories of units (currently approaching 100,000 units) prior to shipping.
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