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Ann: Becoming a substantial holder from COG, page-5

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  1. 4,329 Posts.
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    Well I sold my holding this morning @ 55c figuring that the buyer of the 41m shares yesterday was likely to be parties associated with CGR directors or COG. Yesterday was significant because the shares will get to vote. It seemed to me that the 41m could only have been significant shareholders selling, as in First Samuel with 43m shares or Moelis with 17m and potentially NAOS still holding as many as 19m. So why would these guys sell to parties associated elsewhere if they knew the SCO deal was a likely goer. To do so they'd be throwing away money.

    I really think this move by COG is to stitch up the deal. here's how the numbers stack:
    Total shares 227.57m...so, 171m shares are required to get the required 75.1%
    One would think this to be a real possibility based upon the Top 20 @ end of August 2019 who controlled close on 74%
    But the recently announced decision on selection of option 1 or 2 showed an incredible number (around 150m shares) who didn't vote at all
    One could assume that the 64m shares who voted for option 2 will vote YES to the merger, and now with the additional 41m shares they now have 105m shares. They only need 66m of the remaining 122m shares to get this up.

    BUT...BUT...BUT here is the kicker and read this carefully and as you do, think to yourself how the APATHY of those who will not vote will deliver this to COG - quote - "at least 75% of the total votes cast on the Scheme Resolution being in favour of the Resolution'
    So....votes not cast are wasted.
    Conclusion: This is going to COG and in the worst possible way because the amount of cash we are getting will be scaled back and we will end up with more shares in COG. In my case I was to end up with well over 600,000 shares in COG, a company I have little faith in, based upon performance to date.
    Just my opinion...and I will pay the penalty if my thinking is wrong...DYOR

 
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