I have been looking at the notice filed by Morgan Stanley. It states that their substantial holding is now over 21 million shares and on the list the first reported share purchase is on 30.10.17.
When I add up the shares purchased since that date until giving of notice I come to a total of about 11,268,351 shares which means that prior to 30.10.17 they had already acquired about 10 million odd shares. (a bit over 3% so no need to report.)
I have been back to the annual report and extracted the following regarding the trials with Bristol Myers drug Yervoy:
......................................................................................................................................................................
Phase 1b MITCI Combination with YERVOY®1 in Melanoma Clinical Trial (US) • The continuing Phase 1b MITCI trial is evaluating intralesional CAVATAK in combination with the checkpoint inhibitor YERVOY (ipilimumab) in patients with late-stage melanoma at four sites in the US.
• Results reported in June 2017 at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting included a best overall response rate (BORR) of 67 percent (8/12) in advanced melanoma patients naïve to prior checkpoint inhibitor therapy. The BORR for YERVOY as a monotherapy in late-stage patients has been reported at 11 percent.
2 • In a subgroup of patients who previously received single-agent PD-1 blockade therapy, data showed a confirmed BORR of 33 percent (2/6) and a disease control rate (DCR) of 67 percent (4/6).
In a further subset of patients who had progressed on both anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 therapies, a BORR of 14 percent (1/7) was observed, with a DCR of 57 percent (4/7).
1 YERVOY® is a trademark of the Bristol-Myers Squibb Company 2 Hodi et al. N Engl J Med. 2010; 363(8):711. Suite 305, Level 3, 66 Hunter Street, Sydney 2000 T +61 2 9988 4000 F +61 2 8068 6038 www.viralytics.com
• An ongoing response rate of 38 percent (6/16) has been seen in non injected liver and lung lesions, with a stable disease rate of 56 percent (9/16).
• There has been a low rate of adverse events, with no dose-limiting toxicities in the first 25 patients, and only two grade 3 ipilimumab-related adverse events.
.............................................................................................................................................................................
As I read the report these outcomes would have been known to Bristol-Myers sometime in about August 2017 and as anyone can see are impressive and on a par with Mercks drug.
I do not have the skill set necessary to track the purchases by Morgan Stanley before 30.10.17 but it does appear that the methodical purchase of the 21 million odd shares has been part of an existing medium term strategy commenced in ignorance of the present development. It might be that the time frame fits with Bristol Myers receiving the results of their combination trials.
I have read and researched as much as I can around the offer from Merck and subject to the Court approval unless a higher offer comes I personally believe that it is effectively money in the bank (though there is always risk it might fall over there is no doubt they have the money and that on all the analysis kicking around this is a fair offer so the independent expert is likely to support it as being in the shareholders interest) as a result I personally have decided to take the risk of waiting to receive my cheque just in case something happens.
On the question of the value of Cavatak no one seems to have stated what appears to be the obvious at least from my point of view. Given the apparent effectiveness of Cavatak with Bristol Myers Yervoy and Mercks Kaytruda whoever owns Cavatak will be in a position to sell it when the other companies drug is being used in other settings. Maybe this is factored in but I have not seen it articulated.
VLA Price at posting:
$1.68 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
