Ok, I'm a long way from being all over this however, this is what I think is happening here...
Basically, MUFG is providing collateral for Morgan Stanley to buy shares. Bridging loans.
Morgan Stanley is buying shares on behalf of several entities (see them listed in the notices).
^ This is why we get notitces of becoming and ceasing to be a substantial holder between MUFG and Morgan Styanley. The shares are bought, transfered to MS and then transfered again to smaller entities.
Every time this happens and MUFG buy we see a "becoming substantial holder notice" then when they transfer we see a "ceasing to be a substantial holder" notice. Same goes for MS as the shares and collateral are exchanged. This happens for both MUFG and MS as MUFG are providing the bridging loan so the shares are moving from MUFG to MS and then to the smaller holders.
We don't yet see a "becoming a substatnial holder" notice from the smaller entities as there are 3 or 4 on the list so their holdings are not big enough to be substantial holders (yet).
I cant say if these smaller corps that MS is brokering for will buy enough to ever become a substantial holder.
Basically, these smaller corps could be acting for one of two reasons:
A) They are in support of J-Power's plans and are buying to effect the vote in support of J-Power.
or
B) They are buying because they forsee that Phase 1 (the scheme of arrangement) will not reach the threshold of 75% required to pass the scheme and in turn Phase 2 (the off market takeover offer) will also not meet the required 90% of the vote to enact a cumpolsory off market takeover of all shares on offer in GNX, however Phase 2 will reach the required 50% vote that will allow holders who wish to exit to sell their shares for 27 cents per share.
Option B going ahead as above ^ will mean J-Power are majority owners in GNX however they will not own all shares. SO the final sum will be something like this:
J-Power 50%- 74% ownership. Skip ~ 20% of ownership. These entitities that are currently buying plus any retail holders who hold on ~ 6-30% ownership.
If option B goes ahead and the ownership percentages are somewhat like what I have said above, J-Power will likely come bak to the table later with a bigger offer (this is the possible upside for those entities holding and those who hold on. Or, J-power will just run the company happy to own majority stake and never go for 100% ownership. If the latter occurs, in my opinion, those entities buying and those holders who hold and dont sell and vote no to both phases will benifit from J-Powers access to a large poole of equity and in turn the bringing online of many more renewable energy projects.
However, there is risk too.... J-Power may fork out for pprojects and also raise more and more capital consequitively from the market/remaining holders meaning any holder who cant put in proportionally may be diluted... Or the investment horizon could stretch out longer and longer....
My two cents.
GNX Price at posting:
26.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
