Herewith my thoughts: Need to add Brent Jones and family to that equation - he is the joint MD of Interprac as I understand it. That is roughly 10% - See Unrandom substantial holder notice in December. There is another Jones group that had shares in Interprac which is around 12% - I would suggest that they are probably family. Plus it looks like GC has his shares in a few HINs so their (Crole grouping) is also close to 11.6% The top 5 control the company but I would suggest at this stage management and those that back them still have over 50% even with Sargon holding 12%.
So if we assume that SB has sold some shares so that Sargon can get on board then effectively we still have management in control. In that case, what are the outcomes you explored.
Sargon creeps to 20% & launches a TO ....Has to be at a handsome premium.
This is my fear. What is a handsome premium? I can see this generating enough free cash flow to pay at least a 4c dividend fully franked. That's worth at least 60c to me but with the royal commission and banks running for cover, this business could deliver a lot more over the next 5 years that's what we will lose.
SEQ merges with Sargon & gets much fatter.
We will be swallowed up and have all the outside issues - Not their style it seems if they are unlisted so discount this - unless they are seeking a listing.
Take SEQ private.....Then merge with Sargon & come back much bigger.
Another fear of mine because I don't believe it will include us.
Sargon is happy with its stake & the relationship proves to be a win-win scenario for both.
Very possible but their web presence doesn't seem to suggest that that is what they do. They don't look as if they are passive investors. They cannot get control without the goodwill of management but management could also see the benefit of Sargon in their career.
I think theirs is a "get a foot in the door and wait" scenario - If it goes well I think they will try to persuade management that it would be better inside their camp. That is what worries me as that would be possibly the worst scenario for us bystanders. Always remembering that if management control around 50% and Sarghon 12% they only have a direct cost for what is not owned by them.
So a good step forward but like every opportunity there are risks for smaller shareholders.
SEQ Price at posting:
33.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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