Ann: Becoming a substantial holder - Tiga Trading Pty Ltd, page-14

I am always sceptical of anyone who claims to know the future with any precision.

Its easy to describe what happened in every recent bear market. But to apply that to the current environment requires the presumption that this is a “bear market“ and will behave like all others.

There are many more short term corrections in markets than there are bear markets. If one applies bear market forecasts to every correction, then one will be more often incorrect.

If one relies upon a rigid definition of a bear market, for example a 20% drop, then that may be correct for the small sample of recent bear markets, but because of the small sample size, may not be a reliable indicator of the all the future behaviour of the current market.

I note that many highly qualified and experienced analysts are pointing to a long term downturn in the economy and markets. My experience is that the widely predicted risks rarely eventuate, because sufficient effort is put into preventing it. Who remembers the Y2K problem. Who was warning of the current virus risk?

Markets are very forward looking. During WW2, the market hits its lows very early, within 2 days of Pearl Harbour. I remember a recent war where the market low was the day US forces entered Iraq. While we are now in the worst of the war against this virus, the market will be looking at the future.
I am looking at my portfolio and evaluating it on where it will be in one or two years time, not how much profit it will generate over the next 3-6 months.