We've got to keep the faith with acl. So many biotechs have been running hot, whilst acl is down over the last few years. The reason being the loss of the APP partnership. Although we should have a new partner soon. And the time lost should be made up by the fda's new six month approval rule for the first generic.
On the 25th gsk will release Arixtra's latest sales figures. Annualised sales could top US$200m.
acl's generic is expected to capture at least half Arixtra's market share. So US$100m.
About a third of that goes to acl, we'll call it US$30m.
If we give acl a p/e ratio of 75 like csl, = US$2,250m.
A p/e of 75 isn't too high, given Arixtra's market share is growing heaps & it will soon be approved for ACS.
And don't forget that gsk need to find a new manufacturer for Arixtra as Sanofi-aventis won't make it for them anymore. gsk has shown interest in acl's manufacturing process, which is quicker, cheaper and more effective. So acl might be getting a wee royalty on Arixtra sales too!
Alchemia has all the other puppies too, not least HyCAMP's results due in June.
ACL Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
