True - the plot thickens once again.I’ll split this post into a...

True - the plot thickens once again.

I’ll split this post into a short term and long term view.

Short Term:

I agree today’s announcement and past Centaurus announcements make for fascinating reading when you try to interpret what Centaurus is all about. I encourage all holders to read today’s notice carefully. Get your head around the fact that Centaurus has several funds, but it clearly shows the sequence each fund has acquired and in some cases sold in and outlines all the relevant prices/considerations.

The times they have sold have been interesting and can be loosely associated with the delay with the original bidder statement, the LG profit warning/downgrade and the extension of the Feb 17 original closing date. I think at times they’ve tried to protect their capital or make 15-20% like Inform has said. But they have also kept buying after these events as well as they know Weiss/LG want the shares.

Which makes the Centaurus purchases of approx 32m shares on March 19 very interesting and the subsequent quiet days after the 80m traded on Monday. Are they waiting for Weiss to chase them?

Also look at their purchasers after March 14 (the day the offer got extended because LG had over 50% of SBL) as they bought over 25m @ 1.8 cents.

So since March 14 they have bought over 57m shares @ approx average of 1.9 cents and they haven’t sold.

For now and until the next notice (whatever it will be) I’m viewing Centaurus as good news and our best chance of getting more out of LG/Weiss if we want to sell on the ASX.

Having said all that I’d be curious as to how others interpret Centaurus.


Longer Term:

We (and also LG) still can’t rule out that Centaurus is still after a blocking stake now they see that the offer is unconditional and know exactly what to expect? Would they be happy to be bought out at a later stage by LG once the offer expires?

What’s Next?

Given the inevitable delays that seem to go hand in hand with the Change in Substantial Holding Notices will we soon see a notice from LG saying that they have now got something like a 69-71% holding and make us think that Weiss still has 6.5%? Which would give the impression of having 75-77% in total between the two groups and then a couple of days later Weiss put out a notice saying they are no longer substantial holders, by which stage that important information is too late for a lot of small holders.

(As at 21/3 LG had 61.62, Weiss 6.5% and now Centaurus 5.8% as of 19/3. So LG could soon state they have roughly 69%, maybe they’ve received some more acceptances in the interim giving them 69-71%).

Thankfully the trading after March 19 until now has been fairly quiet so it gives us a chance to reflect on what’s unfolding and hopefully some resolve in the interim.

Also remember that LG announced this week that it’s just in the process of raising S$12m from two private investors, so maybe they know they need some extra cash to pull this off. Dato had also been issued new shares in the past month and LG have the approval to sell off assets so they have cash coming in the very near future.

Given the offer is still unconditional until March 27 surely anyone in doubt can still hold onto their acceptance forms for a few more days and see what more can be squeezed out of LG.

The combined Centaurus, Weiss & LG holdings equate to roughly 74% of SBL, with minimal trading in the last 3 days. Hopefully LG hasn’t received much in the way of acceptances in the last couple of days aside from the conversion of options by the previous directors.

For now if you can stay strong and glta holders.

(and a Top 20 listing wouldn’t go astray right about now).