So, as I suggested a week or more ago, it has come to pass.
Sad day in many ways but March 27th was a very strong signal for me. The then board of directors essentially put their hands up and said "we can't do this, we give up". I was always going to jump ship from that moment forward but had to hold my counsel in case of an unforeseen event, like a 25c offer which some of us worked our butts off to try to induce behind the scenes. The inner circle which represented approximately 12% of the issued capital is still largely intact but many will send their paper work in today. OZL will go very close to the 90% mark. Some might want to hold for the compulsory acquisition at 90% and the hope of better $s from an independent valuation but I will run with that same valuation putting 90% of the value on to OZL shares.
I will probably (legal safety by saying this but read between the lines) be sending in my forms today. I want the cash in the trading account in a hurry. A little for MYL and a couple of others I'm interested in but the majority will be used to top up on OZL most likely. If I can maintain/establish relationships with the team over at OZL, they have a few assets I know a lot about and I'm keen to still capitalise on. They also have a couple of assets of their own and I can see no better copper play on the ASX at this point.
Some of the Lessons learnt:
Never trust private equity, especially if there are a few and they have the ability to control a company.
Make sure the CEO is a salesman as well as a good technician/miner.
Make sure there is a known path to the money required to implement plans.
Capital raisings are not evil when compared to other options.
HCites get very narcy during a takeover, especially when they have held out loyally for years waiting for the upside.
Heading off for a LONG holiday OS next week. Good luck to all in their decision making process and in the unlikely event that AVB shares drop dramatically I may be back
PS The next iteration of the spreadsheet will have a couple of little Ozzie mines added.
