Guys I've been crunching some numbers just to try and get a...

Guys I've been crunching some numbers just to try and get a gauge of this sub-underwriter overhang. 49% non take up of $1.1 B meant the boys ended up with circa 34.64 shares (($1.1 B X 49%)/$15.56)) valued at approx $539 M (based on the offer price of $15.56). New shares under the retail entitlement offer commenced trading on normal settlement from the 16th of November onwards. Cumulative volume (ASX only ecxl Chi X) from the 16th of November to 14th December (yesterday) is 105,392,413. So if we assume 25% of that total volume is the sub-underwriters unloading (this maybe too much of a simplifying assumption) that works out to be about circa 26.35 M shares. So would that mean that there's only about lets say 8 M or so of script left with the sub-underwriters? obviously based on my assumptions of course. 

Short interest doesn't bother me and is pretty much insignificant so I just cant help but think that the majority of the selling has been from forced sources, i.e. subs. 

Would really like to get your thoughts on this.

Cheers and a good weekend to all!.