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crazydave1942

7,196 Posts.

609

09/04/19

08:31

Post #: 38053030
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Originally posted by Holdtight: ↑

Breathe Crazy!!

The deals have started. LiFX is the first big deal. Look at the long game. Look at the expected milestones. $100m cum rev in 18 months out to $250m in cumulative revenues in 36 months for the founders to get the majority of their shares. That is an average of $83m a year. In 2018 they did $38.5m and came close to break even. With approx 100% growth already seen in the first quarter of 2019, plus access to working capital, some tweaking to the transportation process, new product launches and the possible removal of trump tariffs, I am expecting a healthy EBITDA this calander year from the LiFX unit of the business.
We have been told the OHM business will be break even this CY. This can be achieve by either cost reductions, revenue increases or a combination of both. I am expecting the latter. Although I anticipate the LiFX sensors will aid in the OHM package sales, I expect this to take more time, and as such the OHM operation size will need to be reduced temporarily to save on the cash burn and deliver b/e as promised. The LiFX founders, Fidelity and Sequoia are shrew investors. They would not be investing in just the LiFX business, if they thought the OHM side of the business would be a drag on it. They see 1000's of deals a year. They are now 1 and 3 largest share holders in this new company and I anticipate once the numbers start to roll in the way they are forecast to, that they will be in buying up more shares.
With regards the whales, my best guess is that they have known about the LiFX deal and consequent new ohm product for quite some time, and have been waiting until the deal was bedded down before driving on with the tendering of the whales. No point selling the iphone 5 when the iphone 10 is o much better. However, I am encouraged by the recent OHM update, but like other investors, I am keen to see the actual numbers in either a shareholder letter or the quarterly update.
I dont see any CR on the short/ medium term horizon. The coy has never been in better shape. Now its time for the share price to reflect that.
All IMHO and DYOR

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This needs to be the last CR register is massive.

I am calm just talking about the stocks position.

LIFX we have no idea on until a quarterly comes.

Whales are the saviour for OHM.

BUD Price at posting: 7.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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