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ralphwiggum1

330 Posts.

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16/07/20

14:36

Post #: 45911472
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Originally posted by McFinance: ↑

I'm sorry, but with the exception of the creation of new shares, that exact thing could be said for literally every single stock market transaction in all of history. And at the same time one could also say "If the companies prospects are so poor, why are these companies like UniSuper and ECP buying all these shares??"

If that is a genuine contribution to your sentiment on CBR, and not simply a piss-take, it seems like you might be fundamentally ignorant of some pretty core concepts.

Nevertheless, in the spirit of "no dumb questions", here's my take on potential reasons why people may be selling after the drop:
1. The drop has brought the share price close to the March low. Short-term investors who bought in March looking to ride the recovery, and are now looking at reports of a 6 month delay in a major product line, may well have decided to exit breaking roughly even and divert their attention to another opportunity that may provide better short term returns.
2. The ramp up of Covid cases in Victoria/NSW and the US may suggest a 2nd wave of infections, lockdowns, and business downturns. People who believe that the current broader recovery was a dead-cat-bounce may be starting to retreat to the safety of cash prior to re entering and trying to time the new bottom.
3. People are just plain dumb and emotional - they saw the share price drop, freaked, and took their money out to stop it going down further. There's paper after paper on the poor decisions investors can make based on emotion.
4. Yes, there is the possibility that the sellers think the company is done for. Are they right? I don't know. I respectfully disagree.

For what its worth, I bought during the march low, and again after the recent announcement. I'm an engineer who's worked with carbon fiber, so I consider this in my circle of competence. I think this is a solid company with a great economic moat, solid potential for long term growth and scalability, is well positioned with OEMs and in the political space, and has made all the right moves so far.

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Unfortunately you have crafted a considered and insightful response to Neil3220. Best not to do that, if you read through some of the other CBR threads you'll see why. Expect a reply from him with no less than 12x exclamation points telling us about the two start-ups he founded and why CBR is doomed to fail.

Welcome to the CBR discussion. I would be keen to hear your thoughts on how quickly an established alloy wheel manufacturer could go all-in on carbon fiber wheels and establish themselves as a true competitor to CBR? I would imagine it would be quite difficult, which is one of the reasons I have invested in CBR. Porsche's method cannot be up-scaled easily/cheaply and Koenigsegg's method is all manual labour. ESE seem like a tiny operation and appear to have no money behind them, they also seem very amateurish.

CBR Price at posting: $1.54 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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