I'd be very keen if Cashmeoutside would be kind enough to provide us with an updated model (no point reinventing a poor imitation of his very good wheel), but ...
Sn prices have leapt US$6,104 in the last 10 days and that doesn't include any kind of 'panic premium' not reflected in the LME price. This equates to A$7,821 ... in just 10 days !!
Reading Mark Thompson, I don't think this is a short term spike / anomaly either.
MLX has guided for +2k of Sn production from Renision in this Quarter and a Full Year AISC of $19-$21k (midpoint $20k).
The AISC for the current Quarter, as it reduces with throughput, will likely be materially lower than the annual averaged figure.
The Spot price for Sn (LME) is currently US$34,462 or A$44,159.
This creates a margin of A$24k at the AISC level (midpoint of annual guidance, with this Quarter likely to be better).
At MLX's attributable production (+1kt) we should be seeing c. A$24m in OFCF from Renison for the current Quarter (with other costs such as capex, corporate, etc to be deducted).
Not too shabby ... and then, whilst still hypothetical, but supported by an expert such as Mark Thompson, rework those numbers for US$50,000 per ton.
... and don't forget MLX owns a heap of CYM who happen to be developing Australian Cu assets into the early stages of what is potentially a multi-year Cu bull market, which may be quite special.
IMO, MLX is still cheap-as-chips.
Cheers John
MLX Price at posting:
26.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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