I like your thinking. Keep it simple. Q2 quarterly is vital to where this goes as we need to see meaningful progress to the full year AISC estimate.
Utilizing the recent update. Q1 was 22.5koz @ 2643, 65.5 to achieve full year AISC as estimated of 1900, we need to average approx 1615 AISC for the next 3 quarters. If we average a gold sale price of $2500, this leads to cash generation of from 65.5koz remaining for the year of approx 57 million x cash conversion ratio.
Starting from Precis base case of 80 mil available we are then looking at 130 odd million in liquidity by years end.
IMHO everything hinges atm whether the quarterly guide is achievable. Any upside or over delivery and this thing flies. Under delivery and we are in a difficult position. Management leaving definitely leaves us open to downside risk as an added issue.
Personally I still think with this base a merger is the lowest risk outcome for best reward as it almost guarantees the delivery of Federation in a timely fashion. I also added to my position near the lows so have a buy in average of just over 24 cents so this also influences my mindset.
If I have time will try make up some spreadsheets to allow for variables later today.
AMI Price at posting:
16.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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