It never crossed my mind Tianqi didnt have more in the tank. Unless the lithium market goes south, and it's gone the other way, just can't imagine they put their best and final offer up front. Three reasons why they will eventually raise their offer imo, even if only by 10%. Either, Competing bid Activist group threaten to scupper the bid (eg led by hedge funds like Odey) General shareholder revolt at low offer
As the day of reckoning gets closer, nerves get frayed, threats are made, alternative soberly considered, even 5c, certainly 10c, will make the hedge funds profitable and sooth the egos of affronted retail. Most of whom really don;t want to go back under water to 35c and through painful development/dilution with the reputation a failed TO brings...
If no competing bid arrives, the market message is ESS are not worth it, not worth more than 50c and without more discoveries maybe never will. Putting yourself up for sale is exciting and the upside is real, but when all other potential bidders swipe left the TO premium shrinks rapidly. I'm going to say 45% chance no competing bid but Tianqi raises 5-10c to get it over the line (market backdrop dependent), 45% Min Res comes in and we get to 70's, 10% chance Tianqi calls the bluff on hold outs and walks if the scheme is voted down.
Still a lot of time left on the clock... GLTAH
ESS Price at posting:
50.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
