Yes I haven’t even mentioned the huge dilution from Aus Super...

Yes I haven’t even mentioned the huge dilution from Aus Super and a future capital raise. Dividends are going to be years away as the company tries to manage their debt obligations.

Im not a fan of the notion that the brokers (shorters) never get it wrong. Sure they have a higher chance of getting a trade right given their access to information but they do at times get it wrong.

My concern here is that SYR has had a pretty terrible 6 months and with the recent China ban and soon to be commissioned Vadalia, the company is in the best position it’s been recently. However, the shorts have increased and JPM and SS have seemingly borrowed more to potential short even further. One would say they are clearly mad but they may (and I stress MAY) know more than the average punter.

Look at the recent action of the shorters recently in LTR. They clearly got that right and in hindsight it was obvious that the TO was going to fail given Gina’s involvement. But my point is many HC punters were still banging on it was a done deal. Not so.

And this is why I’m cautious here. It all sound promising for natural graphite on the surface and there’s no one better placed than SYR to capitalise on the opportunities. However, Chinas ban/no ban, synthetic substitution, debt, dilution, technology advancement away from graphite etc are too many variable that all need to favour SYR to succeed. Only one needs to be negative and it’s down the toilet. Sure they may have a 50 mine life but look what happened to the graphite market the last 12 months. Who knows where graphite or SYR will be in 2-5-10 years.

One may ask why I originally invested. Well I read all the hype about graphite and saw the SP of the worlds biggest ex-China producer fall from ~$2.50 and bought the story that graphite was going to be the next big thing…Wrong. I held on the belief that the demand drop was due to inventory stockpiles as per the company announcements... Wrong. Synthetic substitution was the problem. So the landscape changed based on my original investment and I was then holding hoping for a reversal on good news. Well the China announcement came out of left field and I took the opportunity to reduce my risk albeit at a small loss.

This is just my amateur opinion and Proga definitely has a better handle of the situation. Apologies for the long post and good luck all!