The 2x 5.058m blocks shown in the substantial sh notice today were exactly what they held per the top 20 list at 1/9/23 in PGH annual report. The other 2 x 3.549m blocks are what they have bought on market since 20th December, at an average of 85.91c.
Per my Bell Potter info, market volume from 20 -31 Dec was about 7.1m and in January 6.1m (don’t know if that includes crossings) = 13.2m. Of this the TIC partners have bought 2 x 3.5m = 7.1m per today’s notice= 54% of market trades over that period (again don’t know about crossings). It’s hard to reconcile all trades given the huge error by RG/Link disclosed in the 3Y on 16 Jan. But if one assumes that the substantial sh notice from RG on 27th Dec was correct even though the 3Y was wrong (perhaps a big IF) Kin has not increased by 1.0% since then (as there has not been another sub sh notice, which would otherwise have been required). Thus RG has acquired less than 3.44m since 27 Dec either on market or by off market acceptances. I haven’t calculated the number of shares that went though the market at exactly 84.0c in that period (the only price at which Kin could have been the buyer). My guess is that out of the market trades since his last sub sh notice he has probably picked up less than 1m ON market. Thus most of the buying since 20 Dec was by Manipur/ Stanningfield, and most of the rest appears to be NOT by RG associates. This is probably a good sign. Of course 5% alone is not enough to block compulsory acquisition but the lower volumes in last 4 weeks (and the prices often above 84c) may signify that nearly all the investors who were willing to accept at 84c have sold- and RG still needs 5.5% to reach the 90% CA threshold. Given that RG stated that the 84c bid was final, and Manipur etc have been buying since then at above 84c, they can’t be buying with the intention to sell into the bid at 84c. It’s only logical to conclude that they have increased their combined holding from 2.94% to 5.0% in the last 4 weeks because they intend NOT to accept the bid. Perhaps they chose to reach the 5% disclosure threshold in order to send a very public message to Kin and to the market.
Not advice
