AZS (ASX) Ann: Becoming a substantial holder

Originally posted by Kamprad7: ↑

The fact that JPM is now at the table is positive for me.
JPM knows the economic situation of the lithium market very well.
Also the situation in China (Ganfeng):
Gelonghui, Feb. 6 | According to the latest equity disclosure data on disallowed, on January 31, 2024, Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) obtained JPMorgan Chase & Co. to increase its position by 2,581,900 shares at an average price of HK$20.9522 per share, involving approximately HK$54.965 million.After the increase in holdings, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s latest number of open positions was 468.521 million shares, and the holding ratio increased from 10.96% to 11.60%.I don't know what games are being played.
But I'm sure JPM wants to make money.
Our chances of getting a reasonable/realistic price have improved.

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Excellent info @Kamprad7 GA worthy.

Originally posted by eastwest101: ↑

Yeah - I thought about export bans and by that I presume that you mean Australian export bans. For the Australian government to do that they would need to have enough midstream/downstream processing capacity outside of China (i.e. local, South Korean and Japanese capacity) for that to happen otherwise they would be be risking a supply shock to the global market.

Or are you suggesting some sort of global or US export ban of "strategic minerals" into China? And that presupposes who is in the Whitehouse, which we don't know yet.

Or are you suggesting some sort of Australian export duty or price disincentive mechanism for the export Spod to China? If so, the Chinese would just use third party commodity traders/middlemen to bypass these policies anyway, so can't see how they would work.

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@eastwest101 just throwing ideas and likelihoods out there taking account of the wider macroeconomic and geopolitical situation.

Regulatory barriers can seem all too hard, but what matters are the push factors that'll find a way as you point out. But that cuts both ways. China now see Trump as a wildcard, unpredictable and they won't work to have him installed. Russia is hellbent on destroying confidence in Biden but the entire world is in shaky grounds which makes people more conservative and less open to change for the sake of it.

The US wants uptake of EVs and massively to deal with Climate Change. China is committed to the same.

There is also the Chinese are absolutely desperate for a lucrative export role they do have an export based economy, and want an end to the unofficial trade war over superconductor chips, and EV market access. It's their only serious hope.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been meeting very high level Chinese officials several times. For context let's bear in mind the entire banking system is under threat because of interdependency with China. If China's banks go down with the imploding of the housing situation they will not be buying LT US treasuries, which is a serious problem for the US. This is just joining dots because you can be sure mainstream media does not want to inject panic into the world,

So it's not a question of an outright export ban. It is a question of what weapons can be used or threatened in an escalation, and whose interests dominate and how they broker a deal. Because everyone wants a win/win deal right now. Processing does have to happen at a variety of locations and the US is moving like crazy to make it happen, Because they don't want to be dependent on China for manufacturing it's a failed strategy.

There are rumours that China is gong to get a carve-up on batteries in a deal brokered by Blinken.

So the US may be doing deals but it probably won't allow China to have a resource grab of one of the biggest known Li resources that goes totally unchecked.

A lot of my ideas don't work, that doesn't mean it's not relevant it can be a question of timing, or other events happening in the shadows.

Fascinating times. Meanwhile the SP is dropping I guess some can't take the uncertainty.