Well said
@lostman.
I also never worry about SS and others shorting. Shorter sometimes are being right sometimes are being wrong. That's their problem. I am long in LTR so I don't care about the shorters position.
The shorters are still in little knowledge of lithium business in comparison to what I know about it IMO. In the last 5 years during my holding in LTR I explained this many times that the lithium business is unique. It's nothing close to iron ore business, or even aluminium business. The supply chain in lithium business is very long and complicated while it's very short and simple in iron ore business.
There are a lots of moving parts and factors in it including mining, refining, different resource types, scientific research factors, geopolitics, batteries, vehicles, consumer trends, etc. etc.
Even the very experienced analysts of major mining companies, stock brokers, hedge funds, etc can't put all this data together and analyse them properly to see the future of lithium business.
There are big EV OEM and battery manufacturer companies try to buy the lithium cheaper. That's normal. They do things to achieve that. For example CATL as a battery company and BYD as a battery and EV company have supported -even owned- lepidolite mines and brine plant to get the lithium cheaper, and they caused the crash in lithium prices.
There is no sole Chinese entity which has caused the lithium prices crashed. Tianqi and Ganfeng are both Chinese companies and they also suffered a lot because of low lithium prices (they lost 2/3 of their stock price in last 2 years). Tianqi is the side in Greenbushes lithium mine who insisted to cut the production because of low lithium price. Albemarle was not happy to that, but because Tianqi is in control of GB mine, they had to accept it.
Some of those shorters are not aware of all these either. They are fooled by the big shorters, and the big shorters are fooled by some other bigger BEOT guys.
PLS's shorters are in this category. They are fools.
The Hancock and LTR shorters relation in LTR's situation post ALB offer withdrawal was something else. They made money in that but now they are fooling themselves. I warned them many times from here.
This EV revolution is a real thing. I'm in that belief for the last 10 years. That's why I'm only in lithium stock (5 years in LTR).
Yes the lithium price went too high US$80k/t for LCE in 2022 and that caused the high cost lithium mines and ore types to enter in production. Then the prices came down and now those high cost lithium mines can't produce anything, some of them had to be closed down already. Then the price is going up now. That's a typical commodity cycle. Very ordinary.
However the big danger is this; If new mines can't be developed then the lithium price will be very high again. There is no seriously big project like LTR's KV project and WES/SQM's Mt Holland projects in the pipeline coming online in the next two years as far as know. Maybe nothing in last 4 years. When the LCE demand growth rate goes up at least 25% every year, how the EV market will find lithium in rational prices in next 5-6 years I don't know. For example; the LCE demand was 1,000kt in 2023, it will be 1.250kt in 2024, then 1.560kt in 2025, goes on like that. You can make the calculation up to 2030. Neither lepidolite nor the Zimbabwe resources would be able to support that demand.
You can see PLS's new offtake contract that the Chinese buyers still have very strong appetite for lithium. It's real. I don't know how the shorters see all these facts if they are not blind.
I wouldn't want high lithium prices for the sake of EV revolution. It has to be balanced in a rational level to get the lithium mines make some profits to keep supplying the battery industry. I think that level is something between US$1500-$2500/t, or I can say US$2000/t average for the long run. LTR would be making a lot of money even at US$1400/t which is the spod concentrate sale price for the long run. Daisy from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence in Rodney Hopper's interview yesterday was saying that the spod price would be around that level very soon.
That's why I still say LTR has no problem, including financing.
There are a lot of big players in the mining sector, chemical refining sector, battery sector, EV sector, old auto OEMs' sector, etc... LTR will find a lots of solutions to fund itself. IMO, it was wrong to go the banks to fund this project. I'm sure it's understood by the LTR management well and they will find other easier and safer solution to fund the project.
We will see soon.
(20min delay)
