Platinum set for bullish high: Goldman Sachs 2009-07-16 18:15:00 A bullish-platinum forecast was offered up by Goldman Sachs, citing improved auto production heading into the home stretch of 2009 and renewed (although unnamed) production problems out of South Africa. No specific price target was included for the January 2010 platinum contract by JPM, as far as we know.
UPDATE 1-POLL-Platinum, palladium seen revived in 2009, 2010 16/07/2009 7:15:49 PM * Platinum seen averaging $1,130/oz in 2009
* Car demand seen picking up towards end 2009
* Average palladium forecast up 9.8 percent vs January poll
By Jan Harvey
LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - Average platinum and palladium prices were expected to rise over the rest of this year and in 2010, on improved expectations for car demand and hope that the the global downturn may have bottomed, a Reuters poll showed.
According to the survey of 48 analysts and traders, platinum prices were expected to average $1,130 an ounce this year, up from a forecast of just $963 an ounce in January, when car demand languished and the economic outlook was bleak.
Spot platinum was bid at $1,153 an ounce at 0912 GMT.
Platinum and palladium are used primarily by carmakers as components in catalytic converters. Prices fell sharply late last year as car demand slumped.
"The platinum outlook clearly depends on people's perceptions of whether the auto market has bottomed," said Calyon metals analyst Robin Bhar. "It looks as if it has."
"Some increase in output, particularly from the U.S. in the second half, should be positive for platinum, as well as ongoing strength in emerging economies like China, where auto sales appear to be booming," he said.
Expectations for platinum's sister metal palladium have also improved. The metal was seen averaging $230 an ounce this year, against a forecast of $209.50 made in January. Spot palladium was at $243 an ounce on Thursday.
Car demand was expected to start picking up later in the year as the economy recovers some lost ground, boosting demand for the platinum group metals.
Platinum was expected to average $1,125 an ounce in the third quarter of this year, rising to $1,175 in the fourth.
GAINS SEEN EXTENDING
The white metal was seen extending gains in 2010, with the average forecast rising to $1,240. In January, platinum was expected to trade at $1,100 next year.
Palladium was also seen higher, with the average 2010 forecast rising to $269 an ounce from $250 in January.
Analysts said rising demand from investment products such as exchange-traded funds in the light of possible new platinum and palladium ETFs in the United States could further support prices.
However, fresh industrial demand would be needed to drive them significantly higher.
"If investment demand for gold picks up, we would expect something similar to happen in platinum and this may push the price back up to $1,200," said Investec analyst Rebecca O'Dwyer.
"However, for platinum to break through $1,200 we believe an increase in autocatalyst demand is required, and we think this is unlikely to happen in 2009."
Analysts were split on the outlook for supply and demand this year, with some arguing a drop-off in demand from the car industry will lead stockpiles to rise. Others said production cuts will be enough to decrease overall supply.
Fortis White Book - Analysis of platinum and palladium fundamentals Tuesday , 14 Jul 2009 The VM Group (Virtual Metals Research & Consulting) and BNP Paribas Fortis today publish the latest issue of The White Book, a bi-annual analysis of platinum and palladium fundamentals.
The White Book's latest analysis suggests: The platinum market was in a deficit of 20,300 oz in 2008, while palladium remained in surplus by 626,900 oz.
The platinum market deficit will grow expand to 65,200 oz in 2009 and the palladium surplus to 652,900 oz
PLA Price at posting:
87.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
