Hosh l know l will be subject to criticism posting this,but l...

Hosh l know l will be subject to criticism posting this,but l mentioned to you in an earlier post last week to keep an eye on RFG as l mentioned the United petrol station gurus have a keen eye on the the Australian now mention ampol,and to boot a comparison to GYG…..DYOR.

The Australian has flagged Retail Food Group as a potential takeover candidate as it “appears cheap against recently listed Guzman y Gomez”. The article cited Ampol as a potential buyer as well as private equity names like PAG and Adamantem Capital.

But let’s take a closer look at how Guzman y Gomez stacks up against Retail Food Group.

• Market cap: $3bn vs. $200m
• Lease liabilities: Approx $1m vs. $100,000
• FY24 revenue forecast: $339.7m vs. $114m
• Avg store revenue: $4.5-5.5m vs. $600-700,000
• FY24 EBITDA forecast: $25.4m vs. $30m
• Stores: 185 in Australia vs. 562 across main brands

These two companies present contrasting narratives. One is touted as a growth powerhouse, expected to roll out 1,000 stores over the medium term. The other is emerging from the trenches, with its share price down around 98% from 2016 highs.