Ann: Becoming a substantial holder, page-19

I still lean towards less chance (than more) of a competing bid. However there is at least some hope based on a more detailed read of the sub notice from Friday.

One of the reasons I’m still holding is that Colina is a very high conviction hold from me (which was validated by PLS picking it out of many for takeover).

Given the high conviction I have, it’s worth holding longer to see if the competing bid comes along. Colina is pretty much the only unencumbered hard rock development asset with a chance of producing winning the next 24 months.

A11 - Huge encumbrance
WR1 - unencumbered but no chance of production next 2 years
PMT - no production till 2030
ATLX - offtake encumbered and they don’t even have a JORC out
GL1 - no chance of production next two years (and possibly a lot longer based on economics)
DLI - is this now a gold play? (What was MIN thinking - talk about the wealthiest in business having absolutely no clue when it comes to M&A)
WC8 - MIN has a blocking stake (again, MIN massively overpaid for it as well). Whoever buys is will need to stump up close to a billion in capex for some very mediocre metallurgy.

So if a larger player wants to get into a hard rock play - there’s next to no options for them - Colina is maybe the only option that ticks most boxes (production timeline, permitting, unencumbered, excellent ESG credentials etc).