MYX mayne pharma group limited

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does BM has indirect shares as well? looking at top 20...

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mikyc

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27/02/25

19:28

Post #: 78062544
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Originally posted by Hadrian: ↑

Can this deed be defeated or improved?

Well there are several ways that this can happen:

Foreign Investment Review fails - I give this almost zero probabilty, so I'm not wasting my time on this.

Independent Expert concluding not fair and not reasonable to shareholders. There are examples where this has happened before but it's rare and where this is the case it mostly led to an improvement of the offer. So, probability (my guess) less than 5%and then only a better offer

Superior proposal emerges. Well, most people in this forum believe the offer is inadequate and by some valuation measures it clearly is eg Offer Price/Sales 1.49 times, for a growing company in this pharma space, average is 3-5 (so that's over $15/share), historically the EBITDA just reported commanded prices between $10-$25. My point here is that there maybe others who are just scrutinising the numbers now for a possible tilt in the next few weeks. Probabilty (just a guess really) 10-20%

A negative shareholder vote occurs. For this to happen, the No vote must be greater than 25% of votes cast (not shares on issue but votes cast). So what's happened in the past at MYX AGMs, at the 2023 AGM of the 88M shares available (then) to be voted, only (approx) 45M shares voted, 1% voted no to every resolution and 34% voted No to the remuneration report (causing a first strike). I mention this point because potentially we have 34% of shares dissatisfied with board decisions. Only 51% of possible votes were cast at this AGM and also similar in 2024 AGM, I am guessing that this is going to increase, my guess once again, to 75%. So on this basis the No vote needs about 15M Votes , during the 2023 remuneration vote, 14.7M voted No. Tall order but not impossible given that more retail shareholders maybe motivated to vote. Probability (guess) 20%

So how is the Yes Vote going, they need 75% of votes cast and if same assumption is made ie only 75% of Votes are cast, then they need about 46M shares, the board has stated that they have Viburnum and Mathieson locked in for 14.1% of votes, 11.4M shares, Rubric Capital Convertible Notes do not have voting power so immaterial (interesting that it's mentioned in the proposal).

I am assuming that this new substantial holder is acting on behalf of Cosette. I am also assuming that this is the holding they picked upon day one and possibly two after the announcement .(their announcement only gave some details about how many and when, but they have been buying since November (not many shares), so they now have 5.1% or 4.15M shares.

So right now the Yes vote can count on 15.2M votes and they need 46M. So can they pick up the rest? If 31M shares (according to the AGM vote on remuneration) are rusted on Yes votes (and I’m counting Viburnum and BM in that) hey need to pick up an additional 10-20M shares on market if they want to ensure the Yes vote . Probability (guess) 60%. Shares on offer are drying up and it appears that they're only picking up about 35% of all the shares traded on the day. (eg Day one 11.6M traded but their share holding revealed they only had 4.1M shares)

Look, this is just an intellectual exercise on my part, but all is not lost. Let's wait and see. VOTE NO that's what we can all clearly do

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does BM has indirect shares as well? looking at top 20 shareholders, there seems to be direct holding by BM of around 6% and indirect (BMGBJ myx pty ltd) 6%.
MYX Price at posting: $7.21 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $5.08		Change 0.010(0.20%)		Mkt cap ! $412.7M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$5.13	$5.15	$5.08	$445.2K	87.01K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	810	$5.08

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$5.15	2033	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	810	5.080
2	3150	5.040
1	600	5.030
3	3000	5.000
1	10000	4.980

Price($)	Vol.	No.
5.150	2033	2
5.180	2396	2
5.190	5000	1
5.200	157	1
5.210	5000	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 27/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

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