Ann: Becoming a substantial holder, page-15

  1. 1,151 Posts.
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    "OPT, like roulette, is the same as betting RED or BLACK at the casino but if you lose, you will have a tax loss to offset on your next gamble The upcoming OPT results are a binary outcome just like red or black roulette. It's a gambling stock. I'll probably have a punt between 45-55c"

    Except it isn't like that at all. Betting red-black at the casino gives you a 48.6% chance (assuming one zero) of doubling your money and that's the maximum you can win. All the analyses on the likelihood of a successful P3 trial is around 70% with potential winnings from that many, many times over your initial stake. Yet same downside as losing your bet at the casino though small cherry of the CGT offset from the OPT loss as you pointed out. The casino bet is a long-term losing proposition with the law of averages, the OPT bet is a long-term winning strategy with the law of averages.
 
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