Ann: Beehive - Option expiry extended by one month, page-16

Think you'll find 20% is actually a reasonably low risk prospect given the number is the result from multiplying the independent probabilities of source, reservoir, reservoir seal and migration path from source to reservoir: all required for an accumulation to exist. e.g if you assume 90% on each of these 4 factors the resulting CoS = 65%. If you assume 70% for each you get CoS = 24%. Given the prospect is in a proven hydrocarbon basin and the structure is clearly delineated on seismic, source and reservoir would score highly. Seal and Migration Path would be more uncertain. That's for the chance of encountering hydrocarbons in contrast to commercial CoS.