ASM australian strategic materials limited

Some notesKMPFeedstock sources in short term to come from...

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    Some notes

    KMP


    • Feedstock sources in short term to come from Vietnam, Australia, Europe and USA
    • Initially as stop gap awaiting Dubbo but then to continue as supplementary
    • Not a lot of non-China oxide supply in 2024 which is a constraint to KMP ramp-up – better in 2025
    • KMP 600T/a at present – ramping to 3600T/a as customers come on board
    • NS World a Korean customer since 2022
    • Two US ‘start-up’ customers for NdFeB since then
    • Noveon for 100T initially but then a long term partnership
    • USA Rare earths for 60% of their needs over 5 years
    • Over ‘half a dozen’ other potential customers in advanced stages of product validation – in Korea,US and Europe


    Dubbo


    • Trying to secure offtakes in parallel to the engineering studies being completed – Hyundai and Bechtel
    • Capex of $1.67B in2021 but now anticipating ~$2B even with optimisation
    • Seems like most of over-run in the NPI (Non Production Infrastructure) aspects?
    • Broadened funding search beyond Korea last year to Japan, Europe and US
    • Now have strong momentum with bankable offtakes and strategic investment parties
    • Credit agencies in US, Canada and Germany have much simplified process/access to ECA funds and discussion are well advanced there
    • Seems like US money is likely the easiest to access for Dubbo and Rowena flying back to US ‘next week’ to continue discussions


    Q&A


    KMP Progress

    • Quality/production rate good but difficult at low scale
    • Scaling slower thananticipated
    • As new ‘start-up’ customers (US based) experiencing commissioning delays and established players (Europe based) having long/complex validation processes
    • One of the validation process for an established player has been underway for 18 months already – but now at last stage of large commercial samples before offtake signed
    • Established players will only use KMP output as a supplementary supply to their existing supply chain – initially at least
    • Looking to supply directly to the Tier 1 component producers, who have multiple car manufacturer customers, rather than to the car manufacturers direct


    Metal PricingPremium

    • China pricing is not a true market price and not really relevant to contracts being negotiated – but is the only current reference point - lacks transparency, heavily subsidised and potentially manipulated
    • Pricing mechanism being discussed is what is sustainable with a floor for ASM and a cap for the customer
    • There is no ESG premium per se as the entry point for any discussions with buyers is having strong ESG credentials
    • Customers want security of supply and volume first and then pricing is a factor


    Dubbo

    • Next 6 months will see;
    • ASM securing new feedstock for KMP
    • Securing funding (CR?) to complete the Dubbo engineering design
    • ECA and customer offtake progress
    • No customers want Dubbo oxides direct but rather the metal products
    • Many are asking for a metals plants on their own jurisdiction that will use Dubbo oxide and potentially third party oxide as well
    • The KMP can relatively simply be replicated to other locations
    Last edited by Geeenius: 26/02/24
 
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