Ann: Bell Potter Unearthed Conference 2024, page-23

First 23 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Geeenius

3,309 Posts.

616

26/02/24

10:24

Post #: 72592627
Share
Originally posted by Geeenius: ↑

Some notes
KMP

Feedstock sources in short term to come from Vietnam, Australia, Europe and USA
Initially as stop gap awaiting Dubbo but then to continue as supplementary
Not a lot of non-China oxide supply in 2024 which is a constraint to KMP ramp-up – better in 2025
KMP 600T/a at present – ramping to 3600T/a as customers come on board
NS World a Korean customer since 2022
Two US ‘start-up’ customers for NdFeB since then
Noveon for 100T initially but then a long term partnership
USA Rare earths for 60% of their needs over 5 years
Over ‘half a dozen’ other potential customers in advanced stages of product validation – in Korea,US and Europe

Dubbo

Trying to secure offtakes in parallel to the engineering studies being completed – Hyundai and Bechtel
Capex of $1.67B in2021 but now anticipating ~$2B even with optimisation
Seems like most of over-run in the NPI (Non Production Infrastructure) aspects?
Broadened funding search beyond Korea last year to Japan, Europe and US
Now have strong momentum with bankable offtakes and strategic investment parties
Credit agencies in US, Canada and Germany have much simplified process/access to ECA funds and discussion are well advanced there
Seems like US money is likely the easiest to access for Dubbo and Rowena flying back to US ‘next week’ to continue discussions

Q&A

KMP Progress
Quality/production rate good but difficult at low scale
Scaling slower thananticipated
As new ‘start-up’ customers (US based) experiencing commissioning delays and established players (Europe based) having long/complex validation processes
One of the validation process for an established player has been underway for 18 months already – but now at last stage of large commercial samples before offtake signed
Established players will only use KMP output as a supplementary supply to their existing supply chain – initially at least
Looking to supply directly to the Tier 1 component producers, who have multiple car manufacturer customers, rather than to the car manufacturers direct

Metal PricingPremium
China pricing is not a true market price and not really relevant to contracts being negotiated – but is the only current reference point - lacks transparency, heavily subsidised and potentially manipulated
Pricing mechanism being discussed is what is sustainable with a floor for ASM and a cap for the customer
There is no ESG premium per se as the entry point for any discussions with buyers is having strong ESG credentials
Customers want security of supply and volume first and then pricing is a factor

Dubbo
Next 6 months will see;
ASM securing new feedstock for KMP
Securing funding (CR?) to complete the Dubbo engineering design
ECA and customer offtake progress
No customers want Dubbo oxides direct but rather the metal products
Many are asking for a metals plants on their own jurisdiction that will use Dubbo oxide and potentially third party oxide as well
The KMP can relatively simply be replicated to other locations

Expand

My hopes from the above in moving the 2024 share price dial are;

A long term binding NdFeB offtake from an established European customer - arising from conclusion of the 18 month validation
An ECA commitment from a US party to support the Dubbo FID, using a DPA funding pathway, maybe with a US located metals plants thrown in for good measure

Here's hoping, right! ;-)
ASM Price at posting: $1.01 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
15 Upvote

1 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

RAD

Radiopharm extends radioimmunotherapy trial to 5 more cancer types

3DA

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

BTH

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

SGP

Things finally 'looking different' for up-and-down Hot Stock tip Stockland

PAM

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

First 23 Last

Add ASM (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 52.5¢		Change 0.015(2.94%)		Mkt cap ! $95.19M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
52.3¢	53.0¢	51.0¢	$85.30K	163.1K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	14915	51.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
53.0¢	12497	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	14915	0.510
3	15227	0.505
18	205788	0.500
2	70202	0.495
3	31631	0.490

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.530	12497	3
0.535	21189	2
0.540	74220	3
0.545	5000	1
0.550	86942	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 19/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

ASM (ASX) Chart

Ann: Bell Potter Unearthed Conference 2024, page-23

Radiopharm extends radioimmunotherapy trial to 5 more cancer types

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

Things finally 'looking different' for up-and-down Hot Stock tip Stockland

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Ann: Bell Potter Unearthed Conference 2024, page-23

Top Stories

Radiopharm extends radioimmunotherapy trial to 5 more cancer types

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

Things finally 'looking different' for up-and-down Hot Stock tip Stockland

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News