@nycpilot couldn't agree more. I visited Nolans site in 2013 (with a campervan) and it was an easy trip off the Stuart Hwy. Of course nothing but an old storage container on site, and I'm pretty sure same today.("shovel-ready" I do hope that container has "the shovel" in it, so us LTS can erect it as a monument one day!!) Anyways, the gas pipeline nearby was a good sign that infrastructure was in place already, and accessibility to road transport was good, even the Nth-Sth trainline was clearly accessible off the Hwy. So initially it was going to be a get it outta the ground and ship it South (to Whyalla) for processing, but the direction thankfully changed to processing/handling on-site, and ship the finished NdPr oxide and phosphate (less volumes, waste handling, etc). Of course we have ended up stuck in the never-ending saga of convincing Govts, getting finance, arranging OffTakes "merry-go-round" with us Shareholders having to stump up the money to keep paying management to stay there and get this project beyond shovel-ready.
When Wesfarmers was interested in Lynas, I wrote to Gav and suggested management swing their PDFs/presentations in the direction of WES CEO and CFO. Gotta admit no reply, I didn't push it. Sometimes it comes down to trust, and maybe I'm too trusting of management that they are doing the right thing in the background and really doing their job of progressing this project.
They have the product ie SH have paid for the intelligence/know-how on how to get NdPr out of the Nolans dirt (they are our main "accumulated losses"
@Alway so yes we may not pay any company tax for the first 3-4 years as these "benefits" are used up, but in my previous post I assumed for longterm valuation calculation that company tax will be paid at 30%) This know-how is what will put ARU in a similar league to Lynas (and possibly in a better league than Chinese RE producers as we are a Democracy with ESG, and politically reliable, exactly what most ROW Permanent Magnet producers are looking for. The FEED needds to be completed and then I think with that available the Offtakes will be announced and the FID will come in August.
I also see a change in management occurring later this year, I'm quire certain that Gav, Pete & Mark have had enough themselves plus we'll need management with construction/commissioning experience in Resources.
As I have posted previously (and I am not downramping, (as
@Birchcorp stated; I am a LTSh, since Sept 2011, first buy at 65c and now own in excess of 1.25mil shares) nor upramping, I feel that this company will be priced more like a utility stock in the future when most unknowns/risks are known/sorted. I have traded this stock for the past 7 years, not because I don't believe in it, but because the market tends to play with it, especially around Capital Raise times. I have participated in every CR/SPP since buying in 2011, and honestly that is where I have made most profit from, not only the often pittance shares received from an SPP but buying at or 0.5c above the SPPprice, from the short-termers/profit-takers/quick buck W&Soph investors, and generally holding on for at least 12 months (CGT discount).
@RUSTYHEELA apology accepted bro. I'm just as patriotic as yourself, just not fuelled with the EtOH or whatever else takes your fancy. I too somewhat despise the Assheads posts, but occasionally they too add an element to the HC ARU forum (although I have to admit, I just don't have the time to explore his bona fides, but I think there is some genuineness to his thoughts, they are just misguided or he has gone down some sort of rabbit warren of misinformation)
Its a Sunday morning and I shouldn't be inside on the HC forum anyways. The lawnmower beckons !!
Good luck to all. Sound Investing. All will be laid bare by August for ARU. Disclosure: I intend to sell approx 10% my shareholding before August (12 month post purchase) in order to top up my holdings with the next Capital Raise likely in Aug/Sept (and as I have stated price will depend on what price the financiers have achieved with debt to equity swap price, my gut feel is 18-22c)
BBB
(20min delay)