Certainly can agree your thoughts Lynas @$11Bn, there were lots of forwards priced in, many based on multiple Govt's doing smart things in a timeous manner, particularly to grow the ROW NdFeB MSC in a sustainable manner, which requires neutering Chinese price manipulation. I don't invest in Govt's, certainly not at the level I was holding.
And that throws up the conundrum faced by every RE wannabe how do they provide security to lenders, and equity, when there are no direct customers & no spot mkt for RE aka LME? No doubt final mkt demand but where does NdPr get turned into NdFeB without going into China, which has deliberately structured its tax system to attract con & carbonate NOT oxides?
Remembering current producer well progressed to adding ~5ktpa to current production, another 1250tpa as supported by USG, sufficient to displace most of the ~5ktpa NdFeB imported from China not embedded in components & finished product IF US can orchestrate a level playing field to construct a sustainable MSC.
In addition MP has a US$1.7Bn BUILT facility, boasting they will produce 6ktpa NdPr from this year, where is all that going to go should they be successful?
Very easy to put all those big numbers down on paper, particularly not factoring a likely +20% rise in CapEx, a highly likely blowout in timelines, both construction & commissioning 90% steady state on spec. Only one company has successfully brought a plant up to ~90% but that took 4yrs basically progressing one of four trains at a time, with some major learning curves along the way, repeat FOUR years, Moly failed miserably in four after spending $1.7Bn, despite 50 years prior experience with the ore.
If you don't think customers & finance are acutely aware of that back history you are deluding yourself, took current producers years to win the full confidence of its customer base, and there's not many more than a handful of significance across the 16 products they are now producing.
Your figures certainly look nice, but from what I've learnt RE industry in over a decade, sheer fantasy, particularly timeline, even Birchcorp reckons 6 years for finance.
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