Per usual great ideas for the future. what about the next 6 to 12 months. With low REE prices no mater what the volume Lynas profits will be small or negative. This will result in large YOY drops. AL has never produced what she claimed. She could meet here CY 2024 predictions but history says she will not. Even if she does unless China starts restricting production instead of increasing it the prices will remain low and higher production will not help Revenue and profits. This will mean as Q3 Q4 and AR are released SP will drop.
It may make sense to you to hold till September of 2024 through this 20% ~ 50% drop hopping that prices will be higher a year from now. It makes no sense to me at all. For Lynas to make good revenue and profits REE prices has to be near 800 RMB / KG WV that is a 100% increase off of todya price. I think we will ample time to detect such a rise and buy to participate in the rising SP.
JMO but profits in SAR will be between AU-$10M and plus $40M. That will be a 75% drop YOY even at the +40M number. What do you think the stock will do if this happens? Revenue Q3 2023 was $223M, Q4 $157M, AR profits $160 M.
What do you think YOY numbers will be for these releases?
What will this do to SP?
How does it make sense to hold through this?
LYC Price at posting:
$5.69 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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