Agreed, I think fossol fuels will trade at a discount from here...

Agreed, I think fossol fuels will trade at a discount from here on out, unless there is a major policy or social change. However, I think (on main street if not wall street) gas has a place for a while yet and once COI is producing that'll provide a floor considerably higher than the current SP. I have seen the pattern you are referring to and it has caught me out some, although I have also traded it a bit. I think for COI there are two main contributing factors, 1. it is thinly traded so can move fast on sentiment changes 2. It has large counterparty risks on their JV, this is causing delays and has taken development timeframes out of the company's hands. IMO it is to managements credit that they seem to be taking steps to overcome this, i.e. exploring elsewhere and building a 100% owned portfolio around the JV, with a view for early production. There is only so much they can do though, with budget and timeframes as considerable constraints. So, yes could go lower as it seems partners aren't concerned with developing to COI's preferred timeframes and opportunity cost is high at this end of the market, IMO. Once we see some hard timelines, however, I think COI could see a re-rate quickly.

I do find it intriguing there were no buyers until it hit mid 0.06s then it bounced and a considerable number of buys loaded onto the market. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.

All IMO, please DYOR and GLTAH.