EGR 7.61% 9.9¢ ecograf limited

The wingman, 30 ktpa will bring in gross revenue of minimum of...

  1. 919 Posts.
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    The wingman, 30 ktpa will bring in gross revenue of minimum of $1,258 pt, or $37.74m gross annually. At net margin of $800, that's $24m. Note that's net of opex, but gross of royalty and capex repayment (which will have both principal and interest).

    That's done on the Stormcrow base case of $1,258 basket price. As per the recent Argonaut research note, basket price is likely to be higher, in the range of $1,250 to $1,900. But I'm glad our numbers stack up very attractively on the base case.

    Their free cashflow calculation (steady state) of the full mine has EBITDA of $25m, with free cashflow of $18m pa from Epanko alone. EBITDA margin is projected at 51%.

    For all the talk of biggest deposits, biggest flakes, lowest strip ratios, steady infrastructure, there are two big reasons I'm invested.

    1. Locked in buyer, with another about to be locked in. No matter what anyone else says about their graphite deposits being worse/better/bigger/smaller/better distribution, anyone who has locked in buyers will go into production. And there isn't anyone else at the moment with locked in buyers (LMB doesn't count, as it's not arms length. VXL counts, although a less than what they originally anticipated).

    2. High ROE. EBITDA margin of 51%, IRR of 57%. These are good numbers for our mine, and more importantly, are good numbers for our investment dollars. Many investors make the mistake of using company motherhood statements as a reason to invest. But if $100K invested in Graphite Company A is going to return me x% over the long term, and $100K in KNL is going to return me (x+y%) over the long term, then that is what I'm attracted to, irrespective of whether Company A is the world's largest deposit, the world's biggest flakes, the world's finest flakes, the world's closest to port, the world's closest to surface, the world's closest to buyers, etc etc.

    It's very disappointing to have been smashed down so far on the sp, but the upside for current buyers is that your long term investment is going to look even more fantastic. I don't have recommendations for the short term traders (due mainly to the fact I can't pick the movements), but my strong recommendation to the longer term investors is that you buy and hold during the development cycle. In 2016 we will be a producer. At that point, the share price will reflect an investment, and will likely include institutions and funds on the register, once the risk is taken out. The time to be invested is over the next 12-18 months to get the largest gains. Anyone who buys today, at under 20c, will be very, very grateful they did so by next XMas. (you can quote this back to me next XMas).
 
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9.9¢
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0.007(7.61%)
Mkt cap ! $44.94M
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9.5¢ 9.9¢ 9.5¢ $45.26K 459.4K

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1 1025 9.9¢
 

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