sjl, I presume you are aware Tesla vehicles are based off induction motors NOT NdFeB PM?
If you do any research you will discover Musk made that decision largely based on NdPr pricing 2011/2012 on the basis that it rendered NdFeB NOT cost efficient.
The Chevy Volt was also designed 2012, with a primary objective to reduce "expensive RE" to the point the secondary PM motor was substituted with a larger, heavier, complex ferrite design, purely on a cost basis.
Now rumoured Musk has signed a 3yr NdFeB PM deal with the largest Chinese SOE NdFeB producer, and GM is importing complete NdFeB enabled drive trains for the Bolt from LG Sth Korea using Chinese PM's.
Point being China is the ONLY location that has the scale to produce NdFeB cost effectively, Japan battling to retain the 45% of the high end mkt that it hasn't yet lost to the Dragon, close to 90% NdFeB manufactured in China which is expanding capacity rapidly thru vertical integration Big 6, most particularly Nth RE (Baotou). Anyone thinking ROW can replicate that anytime soon is truly in fantasy land, will take a new paradigm NdFeB fabrication (BAAM/bonded/laser hot deformation?) to even have a vague chance.
Any new NdPr producer of ANY scale will HAVE to sell into China, and compete with both Lynas & China for what remains of the Japanese mkt. If anyone thinks either are going to pay 17% Chinese VAT, or anything close to $85kg, they need to cut back on the Fruit Loops.
Re competing Lynas LAMP nominal capacity 6.5/7ktpa NdPr optimised ("nameplate" totally theoretical), you may not be aware front end C&L, the high CapEx bit, is running 240% of design rates. How much would it cost, and how long would it take Lynas to tack on some plastic tanks & pipes (called an SX circuit) on behind that, with probably another tunnel furnace in finishing?
GL competing.
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