I’ve shown below my estimates vs the annualised Q4 actual result (62.5koz x 4). Big bell isn’t going to add tonnes it’s going to displace other potential lower grade tonnes through the tuckabianna mill ( it will add ounces through higher grade). I’ve accounted for the grade uplift at Cue from big bell as below.
The potential upside is Fortnum and the grades there - it’s reserve is 6.3mt @ 2.07g/t for 423koz, but they mined much higher grades last quarter at 2.96g/t, my estimate is somewhere between the reserve grade and the Q4 grade. The recent drill intercepts at Starlight (30m @ 5.25g/t and 18m @ 28g/t) could point toward higher head grades at Fortnum but I’m not willing to count this yet.
It’s not impossible for them to get over 270koz but my bet is they will come in lower rather than higher than this figure, particularly as I don’t think they get anywhere near the estimated 1mtpa out of big bell.. they need more high grade ore sources and I’ve put my money behind a company that looks to have just that.
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