That's a meaningful chunk of cash - over 20% of our market cap on an asset most of us would have valued at nothing, a great result, well don Bruce and Co.
I think it's the first time in years that I've felt that an announcement feels to be ahead of the expectation curve rather than behind it. Let's hope this continues up to FID and rewards those of us who have held on this long.
All announcements to date, including answers to questions at the AGM just a couple of days ago suggest that the capital requirements for TB will not exceed those of the previous project iterations. Assuming that the new project configuration can support the same equity to debt ratio, and commercial debt packages are secured (as is favourably supported by NAIF giving the project strategic tick off), then we would expect no funding gap as part of the BFS and therefore no capital raisings for the market to be concerned about (no dilution).
The other critical factor is the BFS and the financial metrics. Looking at the two key factors, costs and revenues, We've been told that there have been some build cost escalations (reported as modest, and nt sufficient to increase the overall build cost given some of the other changes). On the revenue side, there are several indications that suggest that we could see a significant boost in cashflows over the LOM. I wouldn't be surprised if we are similarly surprised with the deliverance of a robust BFS with an NPV of over $1.1bil.
Let's also not overlook the indirect benefits to SFX of the Fingerboards project not getting the go ahead.
Back to valuations, 50% of $1,1bil equates to an NPV of $550mil for SFX's 50% share of TB.
If we compare STA's market cap post FID we see that trading at higher than 60% of NPV is what can be expected.
The theoretical trading market capn(post funding and FID) based on a SP representing 60% of NPV (60% of $330mil with 346mil shares on issue) is an SFX price of $0.95.
Sooner or later the value will be appreciated in my view, that's what markets do.
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That's a meaningful chunk of cash - over 20% of our market cap...
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 30727 | 28.5¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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30.5¢ | 134672 | 2 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 30727 | 0.285 |
6 | 12830 | 0.280 |
1 | 50000 | 0.275 |
1 | 50000 | 0.265 |
1 | 1000 | 0.260 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.305 | 19672 | 1 |
0.310 | 810596 | 2 |
0.320 | 97149 | 3 |
0.330 | 51540 | 1 |
0.335 | 40000 | 1 |
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