POS 11.1% 0.4¢ poseidon nickel limited

Ann: Binding Heads of Agreement for the Sale of Lake Johnston, page-77

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  1. 5,180 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 2350
    "...150 Aud raised with so little results..."

    Fredy,
    Not to rub salt into the wound, or to put too fine a point on it, but I thought I'd add that you're actually quite conservative with the cumulative capital raising number.
    I track the cash flow reporting on an internal spreadsheet which goes back ~10 years (i.e. arbitrarily starting from 1 April, 2014) and can confirm that ~$170m ($168.9m) cash (ex-borrowings) has been cumulatively raised during that time.
    This doesn't include the various raisings that occurred during the 7 years prior (i.e. the period covering the changeover from NIA in May, 2007, through to end-March 2014).

    As you rightly stated, SOI in May, 2007 was ~300m (294,490,983).
    The SOI on 1 April 2014 was ~515m (513.467,315), compared to 3,713.5m SOI now.
    So, a decent rate of dilution (1.7x) over the first 7 years (2007-2014), followed by MASSIVE dilution (7.2x) over the following decade (2014-2024). Total dilution over 17 years: 12.6x.

    I find that looking back at history very much helps inform the future. Not suggesting that it can foretell the future, but if we don't look at history, then we rob ourselves of an opportunity to learn/evolve in the future (i.e. doomed to repeat the mistakes). This happens all the time when analysing mass (macro) behaviour. Fortunately, I believe that free will gives individuals (micro) the opportunity to learn, evolve and adapt, if we choose to.

    PS. BS was acquired in late-2014 and LJ in early-2015 (both from Norilsk), so 'only' 9-10 years holding for those assets. Prior to that it was Windarra only, which has been nothing but a financial black hole in the past (i.e. ~$60m of past exploration between 2007 and 2014, albeit with the discovery of Cerberus (i.e. ~half of the current W resource), which for many years the market has rated at zero).
    And now it looks like it's back to the future, drilling at Windarra. Given the stranded nature of that asset compared to BS, with its existing topside infrastructure, I find myself making certain inferences about what the drilling priority (at W) tells us about the prospectivity at BS, moving forward.

    PPS. I'm sure I'm not the only observer who has noticed that the $15m sale of LJ was effectively structured with two major payment tranches, separated by 12 months (i.e. instead of one lump-sum payment upon Completion). I think there's a message in that. It certainly has implications for just how free-wheeling, spending-wise management can be over the next 12-24 months.

 
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