Hi @2ic I've followed HAS for sometime now and similar to Investor Bob - don't understand how current market cap and share price is so low.
Your input seems calculated, realistic and up-to-date with RE projects. So I wanted to ask what you think the likely outcomes for HAS is moving forward & if Q2FY25 production is still possible?
Under the recent cap presentation - the Post Tax NPV is $865mil. Oustanding capital costs for plant as you say is ~$258m + secured notes loan due mid next year being ~$225m.
Is there not still an intrinsic value of $865m-$258m-$225m= $382m + already spent capex ~$162m = $544M intrinsic value, not taking into consideration other net assets ?
I don't see how we come to a market cap of $47m, let alone the cap raising at these levels and why there's been such a discount to share price of 60.5c on 22/03/24.
Your considerations RE: offtake to China impacting government loans/sweetheart financing is something I hadn't considered that offsets gov funding & the Western's attempt at moving away from China and imposing tariffs for RE to prevent price manipulation.
But with the above, even considerations for takeover would indicate a better Market cap/share price for cap raising, No?
Am I missing something? It seems HAS is a lot further along and closer to production than ARU, so I'm struggling to see why share price has slid so far.
Not sure if I'm on the right track but I can't see why sentiment has turned - noting prev investors have significant losses. At current prices it looks like a bargain and offer hasn't been extended so it's likely to have been adequately subscribed?
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