Fear that they will not be able to fund through to production,...

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Slim103

921 Posts.

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24/04/24

16:25

Post #: 73501729
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Originally posted by ZachT: ↑

Hi @2ic
I've followed HAS for sometime now and similar to Investor Bob - don't understand how current market cap and share price is so low.

Your input seems calculated, realistic and up-to-date with RE projects. So I wanted to ask what you think the likely outcomes for HAS is moving forward & if Q2FY25 production is still possible?

Under the recent cap presentation - the Post Tax NPV is $865mil. Oustanding capital costs for plant as you say is ~$258m + secured notes loan due mid next year being ~$225m.

Is there not still an intrinsic value of $865m-$258m-$225m= $382m + already spent capex ~$162m = $544M intrinsic value, not taking into consideration other net assets ?

I don't see how we come to a market cap of $47m, let alone the cap raising at these levels and why there's been such a discount to share price of 60.5c on 22/03/24.

Your considerations RE: offtake to China impacting government loans/sweetheart financing is something I hadn't considered that offsets gov funding & the Western's attempt at moving away from China and imposing tariffs for RE to prevent price manipulation.

But with the above, even considerations for takeover would indicate a better Market cap/share price for cap raising, No?

Am I missing something? It seems HAS is a lot further along and closer to production than ARU, so I'm struggling to see why share price has slid so far.

Not sure if I'm on the right track but I can't see why sentiment has turned - noting prev investors have significant losses. At current prices it looks like a bargain and offer hasn't been extended so it's likely to have been adequately subscribed?

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Fear that they will not be able to fund through to production, and the arrangement with Wyloo hanging over their heads are playing into the current SP. You are absolutely correct in realising the inartistic value where it is.
If a purchaser with the desire to get into the RE space and the ability to fund through to production were to turn up then we will see this rocket if anyone gets a sniff.

Who would be a likely buyer? FMG mention getting into the RE space once they identify something investment ready ..... well hello who's watching

Last edited by Slim103: 24/04/24

HAS Price at posting: 34.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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