Yes Zach, you’re missing something. Dig a little deeper to see...

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Jgr64

597 Posts.

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24/04/24

20:18

Post #: 73505221
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Originally posted by ZachT: ↑

Hi @2ic
I've followed HAS for sometime now and similar to Investor Bob - don't understand how current market cap and share price is so low.

Your input seems calculated, realistic and up-to-date with RE projects. So I wanted to ask what you think the likely outcomes for HAS is moving forward & if Q2FY25 production is still possible?

Under the recent cap presentation - the Post Tax NPV is $865mil. Oustanding capital costs for plant as you say is ~$258m + secured notes loan due mid next year being ~$225m.

Is there not still an intrinsic value of $865m-$258m-$225m= $382m + already spent capex ~$162m = $544M intrinsic value, not taking into consideration other net assets ?

I don't see how we come to a market cap of $47m, let alone the cap raising at these levels and why there's been such a discount to share price of 60.5c on 22/03/24.

Your considerations RE: offtake to China impacting government loans/sweetheart financing is something I hadn't considered that offsets gov funding & the Western's attempt at moving away from China and imposing tariffs for RE to prevent price manipulation.

But with the above, even considerations for takeover would indicate a better Market cap/share price for cap raising, No?

Am I missing something? It seems HAS is a lot further along and closer to production than ARU, so I'm struggling to see why share price has slid so far.

Not sure if I'm on the right track but I can't see why sentiment has turned - noting prev investors have significant losses. At current prices it looks like a bargain and offer hasn't been extended so it's likely to have been adequately subscribed?

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Yes Zach, you’re missing something. Dig a little deeper to see what NdPr Oxide prices HAS assumes to generate that NPV, then compare it to current NdPr Oxide prices. Use of highly inflated RE price assumptions seems rife across the RE hopefuls sector.

HAS Price at posting: 34.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
3 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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