People ask why would someone buy on market at $3.50 or more.In...

People ask why would someone buy on market at $3.50 or more.

In simple terms, you pretty much have a put option at $3.50. You can't really go less than this. So what is the upside opportunities:

1) Expect higher offer. With SQM at 19.9%, it makes it hard but someone could look at getting 50.1% (control of Azure) and then buy Mark Creasy's 40% and then have an effective interest of 80% in the project. SQM may then sell out.

2) It's pretty much a free option on exploration - the downside price is locked in at $3.50. If you think there is good exploration news to come which justifies more than $3.50, then two potential things could happen:

(a) the independent expert may state that the price isn't fair and reasonable - the Board is not required to continue to support the transaction and they need to negotiate a higher price;
(b) the market doesn't think it is fair and reasonable and vote accordingly (i.e. don't get 75% for the scheme), which likely leads to a higher price.

3) Try and block the deal - Gina and Liontown version 2 (or try and work out a JV like Wyloo did with IGO - although collateral benefit is an issue). Likely a short term spike above $3.50. Long term, it reverts to fundamental value (but likely loses takeover premium).

I'm simply going to hold and see where this goes.