The difference between Liontown and Azure is that there is a formal offer.
Liontown was an indicative, non-binding offer. Meaning Albermale could decide to pull out for pretty much any reason (resource potential concerns, capital costs concerns, metallurgical concerns, lithium price decreases, competitor acquires share etc).
Here we have a legally enforceable bid for the Company (Implementation Deed, and enforceable by Corporations Act). The offers have to remain in place for a specified period (in the case of the Off-market Takeover Offer, it is 20 Business Days after the date of the Scheme Meeting or time agreed for Scheme Meeting (Feb 24)). The only conditions in which SQM can pull the offer is:
Scheme
- No FIRB approval
- Independent Expert not concluding (or continuing to conclude) the Scheme is in best interests of shareholders
- get less than 75% of votes for the scheme at Scheme Meeting (or <50% by number of shareholders voting)
- A shareholder holds more than 19% (other than SQM)
- Court doesn't approve (unlikely if voted for and Indepedent Expert agrees)
- No material adverse change (unlikely for an exploration company unless lose tenements or someone steals cash they hold. For assets on balance sheet, needs to be loss of at least $20M. Note, excludes matters which have been fairly disclosed - so SQM done due diligence and unless assay results are fraudulent (e.g. Bri-X), going to be hard to argue against.
Takeover (only applies if Scheme is unsuccessful or Scheme terminated e.g. shareholder gets >19%)
- No FIRB approval
- No material adverse change (see above).
I can't see a FIRB objection, and the others are unlikely. The most likely is 19% interest but if this occurs, it reverts to an off-market takeover where there is no minimum condition.
As I've said earlier, you've effectively got a free option to sell this at $3.50 until February 2024 with very limited risk. If you think the price isn't going to get any higher, then you could sell and try and earn interest, dividends or gain on something than wait. I think worth waiting at least a month.
Completely different to Liontown, where you had a hope that after their due diligence, they would then offer $3. Even without Gina, there may never have been an offer. In that case, I would have sold for $3 (knowing the best that was likely to happen was $3)..
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