AZS 0.00% $3.69 azure minerals limited

Ann: Binding Transaction Implementation Deed with SQM, page-323

  1. 522 Posts.
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    In the midst of all the confusion and dilemma as to whether we should buy or sell, can someone please confirm to me if my understanding is correct.

    If we decide to sell: this has been covered well above.

    If we decide to hold: there was a fantastic post from Fredbear2, but I wanted to unpack it a little... Holding the stock assumes that we will see a higher indicative price either by way of organic means (SP appreciates due to sentiment, or excellent TA3 results), or through another offer (either from SQM or Gina et al). Although, we do technically get until Feb to have the $3.50 price floor in due to the off-market takeover condition baked into the agreement. we still have Gina sitting at a 20% stake (all signs point to her completion of this tomorrow). If Gina gets her 20%, sits on her backside and says she won't sell to anyone else for any price, my understanding is that SQM will have to be happy being a majority shareholder or look at a JV, and that is also even if they get Creasy and Delphi and every other shareholder on board. So if SQM decide they don't want this, I wonder if that makes Fredbear2's comments redundant because then SQM will just sell their stake and bugger off.

    It seems that SQM is itching in their pants to knock Albermarle off their perch as the number 1 lithium company, and to do that, they will want to be calling the shots. The last thing they want is Gina, Creasy, Delphi or whoever else telling them what they can and can't do. Gina has a long term approach and she will be at loggerheads with them every step of the way. The only other thing I have not considered is if Gina pulls a Warrego and puts her own offer in, however I don't see Creasy coming to the table and selling unless she puts in some astronomical figure (likely won't happen). His approach would make me think he will happily go to mine with Gina at the table. This would tie into what 1ronnie said above. Long term holders here will likely see great gains in the event SQM leave, but it may be a case of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush right now.

    Edit: I will have to have a look into the binding nature of the takeover and see what condition precedent exist that would allow SQM to pull out of the deal if the above unfolds.

    Keen to hear others thoughts.

    Cheers and well done to everyone who sold today.
    Last edited by PutSauce: 26/10/23
 
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