Impressive to get to 18% so quickly, and at no premium. Speaks to a lot of people scared by Liontown precedent that you can acquire such a large stake without pushing up share price. I'm struggling to think of when this has been done (particularly on a cash transaction, and not scrip).
If I'm SQM, I'm trying to do whatever I can now to abandon the Scheme (see below on Scheme voting) and go straight to an off-market takeover and get FIRB approval so I can get the Delphi stake. They are then at 30.3% of Azure. If they can mop up any other votes, may be they can get effective control at around 40% - although I think it will be very slow going. Creasy remains the kingmaker if he sells his share to SQM - not sure what he is thinking about taking some money off the table but has to be given some consideration.
Does Chris Ellison (or other third party) come in and bid $3.51 so they can get the Delphi stake (which is subject to no superior proposal).
Ultimately, it's hard to see much of a premium above $3.50 anytime soon unless drill results keep delivering or Creasy sets a higher price for his share.
This looks like a three part transaction unless Creasy sells to SQM:
1) Current takeover offer - $3.50 or small premium ending with no one in control 2) Someone buys out Creasy's 40% (may be SQM, or Gina/Posco/Indians) - probably not for a long time. 3) Takeover for remainder of Azure by whoever gets Creasy's 40%, with Creasy's price setting terms. His share interest in Azure would seal the deal.
I'll wait it out a little longer and see what Creasy does.
Scheme Voting: As SQM can't vote in the Scheme, Gina's 18% at this point is worth a minimum no vote of 22.5% (18%/80.1%). Given a percentage of the register doesn't vote, it is clear the Scheme would fail as that 80.1% of voting is likely lower.
AZS Price at posting:
$3.50 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
