I can't see SQM walking away completely. They have a 25% offtake right already.
Gina, Chris and another third party buying 19.9% - possible but unlikely. Also, what price are they paying for that interest on-market and who is selling. Can only be good for us shareholders.
Finally, Gina needs to be careful about acting in concert with another party if it takes total interest above 19.9% (needs ASIC approval - below 20% and above 5%, needs only substantial notice disclosure of the relationship). Parties can be deemed acting in concert if they co-operate or consolidate control of a company, or frustrate the successful outcome of a bid for the company (or try and control board). That being said, it can be very difficult to prove guilt - petrol stations have got away with it for ever acting in concert and manipulating prices. One person leads, and the other follows. Easy when commercial interests align. Potentially, SQM or Azure could bring the matter to the Takeover Panel. One of the potential outcomes if found guilty is that Takeover Panel may direct them to auction off their shares (at least down to 19.9%). Could otherwise be prevented from voting shares above 19.9%.
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