Have really admired your posts over the last 8 months .
Everyone's got different adgendas between their ears.
Can I share my thoughts ?
SQM and HP are hurrying towards a final resolution of ownership in the low part of the Lithium spoduemene price cycle . They want both want a larger AZS ownership increase before the MRE is public.
Analysts at Euroz Hartleys in July 2023 captured in their guide to the market’s current rule-of-thumb in arriving at company valuations for early stage discoveries and beyond.
It went like this:
1) Every 10 million tonnes of potential spodumene resource creates $80-$100 million of exploration value. 2) Every 10Mt of resource that has a clear pathway to production creates $150-$300 million of speculative development value. 3) And finally, when in production, every 10Mt of mining inventory is valued at about $1.2 billion (at spot prices).
So if the market is valuing our 170 mt at 1.25% mid point of Exploration target 17 X 90 or $1.53 billion or $3.31 per AZS share ( not worrying about Cressy's Stake ) thats exploration value.
If you stick around for the MRE March/2023. And both SQM and HP are signalling a clear path to production . 17 X 175 or 2.975 billion or $ 6.43 per AZS share .
If you stick around until 2027/2028 in production 17 X 500 or 8.50 billion at current spot or $18.30 per AZS share . ( 3 k /tonne versus 8 k/tonne)
5 months wait for 84% uplift . The haste of SQM and HP to take the de-risked AZS from us retail holders is staggering . I want to be potentially in Minority ownership in 2027/2028 in Karatha as a the first shippment of 6% goes to the SQM/WES plant in Kwinana. And have 5 more bags than now if a supply shortage occurs make that 10 bags .
AZS Price at posting:
$3.50 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)