One of the conditions of the offer is that it would be cancelled...

One of the conditions of the offer is that it would be cancelled if a shareholder takes a stake of 19% or more in Azure.

Not very well described as the offer has 2 stages,

1 the Scheme and
2. the default Takeover offer.

People should carefully read the Ann on the offer https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/AZS/02730557.pdf
and stick to the facts.

The preconditions to move from 1 to 2. haven't been satisfied yet which include if a third party takes 19% or over stake.

Gina has 18.3% holding just under the 19% and logic says that number is no accident as she is safely keeping her powder dry. If she did increase her stake the relevant legislation applies for her to be compelled to announce a compulsory takeover bid. This hasn't happened.

Gina must have acquired the 18.3% suddenly or she would have had to issue a 5% holding notice as she went along. I would say it happened over the past week or so as retail investors took the cash and ran and no doubt scared by the illogical prospect of having their cash tied up with only 1c improvement in the SP...and coverage and summary by Money of Mine YouTube channel report on this, interviewing one so-called expert who:

- did not look at the circumstances of this becoming a tier 1 deposit,
- the importance of the next drill results (really company-making IMO) and the news flow into January and February when the offer will need to be firmed up by SQM connected to the next point; and
- the overriding compulsion of the independent assessor to ensure the offer is fair and reasonable in all the circumstances regardless, unless a break fee applies.
Not a lawyer among them and it shows...

Speaking of laws, assuming the law of self-interest continues to apply in Gina's world she will be waiting for the situation to become clearer, having got a foothold at a massive bargain price, and for reasons stated earlier, so the scheme must be still on foot and SQM cannot be increasing their ownership, they are prevented by the terms of the Scheme. If it were not on foot there would be an ann to that effect by AZS, stating that it's no longer on foot and the reasons why it just wouldn't lapse with no relevant announcement.

So the buyer/s today are most likely not Gina nor SQM IMO. A third party most probably and not a very impatient one they're just picking up slowly. Could be hedge funds as signalled by others, could be MinRes.

Sellers are being ridiculous selling out below $3.50. IMO.

Never make a decision based on emotion. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Happy to be corrected on any of this.